IGC forecasts total grains output record in 2020-21
World total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2020/21 is forecast to expand by 23m t y/y, to an all-time high of 2,210m, including record harvests of wheat and barley. Although the COVID pandemic continues to dampen demand in some sectors, particularly for fuel ethanol and brewing, overall consumption is predicted to grow for a fifth successive year, to 2,216m t (+24m y/y). This includes gains of 8m t for both maize and wheat, and increases of 2m each for barley, sorghum and oats. Another drawdown of world grains stocks is envisaged, to a five-year low of 611m t (-6m y/y). The decline is entirely because of a drop in maize inventories, to an eight-year low, led by contractions in the US, China and the EU. In contrast, wheat stocks could climb to a new high, although the expansion is mainly in China and India, while the aggregate carryover of wheat in the major exporters is expected to be little-changed y/y. World barley stocks are seen at an 11-season peak, partly because of a sharp rise in Australia following a bumper harvest. Including solid increases for shipments of wheat, maize and sorghum, global grains trade in 2020/21 (Jul/Jun) is expected to reach a record 408m t, up by 4% y/y.
Fuente: Informe del Consejo Internacional de Cereales (IGC).